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In this month’s MONEY MONEY MONEY, we ask whether the newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump can stop investments in the green transition, as the Danish financial lobby believes. No, says Dutch bank Triodos, known for its climate-focused investment strategy.

Read about a climate-damaging record in Norwegian oil investments, and Elon Musk’s staggering salary bonus that has put a few big European investors in the red and put Tesla stock on the blacklist of unethical companies.

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Inauguration Ceremony For Trump's Second Presidential Term
Two pension funds have sold their shares in Tesla. The reason is Elon Musk's bonus salary of 56 billion dollars. Mike Segar/Reuters/Ritzau Scanpix

31. Jan '25

Corruption, cold feet and Musk billions

With Donald Trump in the White House as the world’s new anti-climate leader, the Danish financial lobby, aka the industry organisation for Danish insurance and pension funds (F&P), was quick to report that it will now be difficult to invest more in the green transition – profitably.

In other words: When green investments have a tailwind in the stock markets, the message is that profit and climate easily go hand in hand.

When the winds change and green money is in danger of turning into red numbers, the message is quite different.

“We have underestimated the task,” said F&P, just three days after Trump was inaugurated, about the 450 billion Danish kroner for green transition that the Danish financial sector has previously proudly boasted about delivering.

Now pension funds are hesitant to make that promise.

F&P may want a green world, but they got cold feet when anti-ESG global politics hit home turf.

But there are others in the financial world who see things differently. For example, analyst Joeri de Wilde of the Dutch bank Triodos, which is known for its commitment to ethics and the climate.

He believes it will be very difficult for Trump to stop the green transition.

“Despite Trump’s focus on new oil drilling, the increasing share of renewable energy consumption shows that the momentum for clean energy is robust and very difficult to dampen,” he told Danwatch, referring to recent figures for global electricity production.

They show that more than 30 percent of the world’s electricity generation is now generated from renewable sources, and the increase has been steady over the past 18 years – including during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021.

Graf
Global Electricity generation from renewable energy sources

Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the global investment appetite in climate-friendly energy sources also paint a picture of a profitable green transition that cannot be stopped, says Joeri de Wilde.

Despite geographical differences, the IEA concludes that overall, the world is now investing twice as much in renewable energy as it does in fossil fuels.

“Overall, it shows that it pays to invest in green energy instead of fossil fuels, which is confirmed by the significant increase in investments in renewable energy since 2017, when Trump first moved into the White House”, says Joeri de Wilde.

Finally, and perhaps most crucially for the global green momentum, studies in several countries show that public sentiment in favour of the green transition has reached a so-called critical mass. Sustainability is now the norm and no longer a niche.

This is also true in the US, where more than half the population is concerned about climate change and two-thirds believe that sustainable products should be the standard for businesses. The US is already past the green point of no return, and the MAGA movement is pointing backwards, not forwards.

“More and more people are becoming aware of sustainability and are willing to act on it. We see this happening in many countries, including the US. It indicates a shift in societal norms towards more sustainability. And we are closer than it seems, as only a significant minority, around 25 percent, is needed for decisive change,” says Joeri de Wilde.

Controversial companies

Adani Group: The investors’ next exclusion?

In November 2024, Gautam Adani, Chairman of the Indian conglomerate Adani Group, wasindicted by US authorities for involvement in bribery and fraud totalling 265 million dollars.

The Adani Group is interesting because Gautam Adani has pledged to invest 100 billion dollars in India’s energy transition. These are investments that Nordic investors are directly connected to through ownership of green bonds issued by the Adani Green Energy company.

The indictment raises reasonable doubt as to whether the earmarked green money is actually used for green transition.

It’s hard to see how Nordic investors in Adani-controlled companies can turn a blind eye to this case when the Norwegian Oil Fund, one of the world’s largest investors with a fortune of no less than 20,000 billion Norwegian kroner, has already excluded Adani Group. According to the Danwatch database, Pensionsmaskinen.dka large number of Danish pension funds have invested in Adani companies, while 17 Danish municipalities, according to Gravercentret, the Danish Centre for Investigative Journalism, have also invested money in the group.

Tesla: Elon Musk bonus of 400 billion kroner

The more Tesla’s owner and CEO, Elon Musk, behaves controversially – for example, when his hand gesture could be mistaken for a Nazi salute – the more likely he is to lose investor support.

Two Dutch pension funds, ABP and Bpf Bouw, have recently sold their shares in Tesla. The reason was the unpaid bonus salary of 56 billion dollars that Elon Musk awarded himself last year – and which he got a majority of investors to approve at Tesla’s annual general meeting.

The Tesla CEO, with access to the Oval Office in Washington, can look forward to reaping over 400 billion Danish kroner in bonuses in the coming years. Western oligarchs have truly entered the centre of world power.

Although many Nordic investors, including PFA, Danica and the Norwegian Oil Fund, voted against the Musk bonus, unlike ABP and Bpf Bouw, they have maintained their investments in Tesla stock. Is this a tacit acceptance?

Norway's oil sector expects record investments

If your climate naivety leads you to believe that Norway’s active oil companies are quietly abandoning investment in new fossil fuel fields in favour of wind farms, you are sorely mistaken.

The first announcement of the year from the Norwegian oil industry, which has many Danish and Nordic investors behind it, is that production is expected to increase in 2025. Among other things, seven new oil fields were opened last year, while only four were closed.

The industry association Offshore Norway also estimates that oil and gas companies operating in Norway will invest 275 billion Norwegian kroner in field development. This is a record high figure and much higher than expected.

The investment appetite for more fossil fuel revenue sources is supported by the Norwegian authorities, who expect the country’s oil and gas reserves to increase by 1.1 billion barrels of oil by 2025, equivalent to a current market value of almost 600 billion Danish kroner.

E&A activity, i.e. the search for and development of new fields, is also expected to remain high in the coming years.

This is worrying news for the climate. But positive financial news for the many Nordic investors in oil companies operating in Norway, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.

At least twenty oil companies are currently drilling for oil off the Norwegian coast, and on 16 January they were awarded a total of no less than 53 new drilling licences – 33 in the North Sea, 19 in the Norwegian Sea and one in the Barents Sea.

The licences are held by 21 oil companies, including Shell, TotalEnergies Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, Equinor, INPEX, Sval Energi and many more. These companies all have Nordic pension funds among their shareholders, including PFA, Danica, PensionDanmark and ATP.

Thank you for reading. Remember that you can always provide feedback, topic requests or news suggestions by replying to this newsletter.

The next issue of MONEY MONEY MONEY will be published on the last banking day of the month – together with your salary. Thank you for your interest.


Joachim Kattrup